Analysis of tourism demand in Tangier-Assilah
ARMA modeling (Box-Jenkins methodology)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23882/emss25113Keywords:
Forecasting, tourism demand, Box-Jenkins methodAbstract
This article analyzes tourism demand for the Tangier-Assilah destination, using the ARIMA model (Box-Jenkins methodology) to identify the evolution of this demand. The results indicate a growth in tourism demand for Tangier-Assilah, validating the model's effectiveness for short-term forecasts. For long-term forecasts, the “ARDL” model is recommended. This study provides an understanding of the dynamics and behavior of economic players in the tourism sector, offering a decision-making tool for the orientation of tourism policies. The conclusions highlight the importance of these analyses for economic development, underlining the need for specific tourism policies. We highlight the importance of the Tangier-Assilah tourism demand study, detailing the objective of the analysis. The methodology used, based on the ARIMA model, is briefly explained to understand the empirical approach adopted. The results highlight the projected growth in tourism demand, confirming the relevance of the ARIMA model for short-term forecasts. On the other hand, the use of the ARDL model is recommended for long-term forecasts. The main conclusions highlight the potential impact of these results on the orientation of tourism policies and provide recommendations for economic development stakeholders.
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