Risque Pays et Investissement Direct Étranger
Une analyse bibliométrique de la littérature scientifique
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23882/emss26354Palavras-chave:
Risque pays, Risque souverain, Notation souveraine, Investissement direct étranger, Risque politique, Bibliométrie, VOSviewer, BibliometrixResumo
Cet article propose une analyse bibliométrique approfondie de la littérature scientifique consacrée à la relation entre le risque pays et l’investissement direct étranger (IDE). L’étude couvre les publications indexées dans la base de données Scopus sur la période 1998–2025. La sélection des documents a été réalisée selon le protocole PRISMA, permettant d’identifier un corpus final de 181 publications en langue anglaise. L’objectif principal est de cartographier l’évolution de ce champ de recherche, d’identifier les principaux acteurs scientifiques et de mettre en évidence les thématiques dominantes ainsi que les orientations futures de la recherche. Les résultats montrent une croissance soutenue de la production scientifique, particulièrement à partir de 2010, avec une accélération marquée après 2018. Les États-Unis, la Chine, le Royaume-Uni et l’Afrique du Sud figurent parmi les pays les plus productifs, tandis que des revues telles que International Business Review, Journal of Comparative Economics et Journal of International Business Studies apparaissent comme les sources les plus influentes. L’analyse des auteurs révèle une structure relativement dispersée, caractéristique d’un champ multidisciplinaire mobilisant l’économie internationale, la finance, les affaires internationales et la science politique. Les analyses de co-occurrence des mots-clés, de co-citation et de couplage bibliographique mettent en évidence quatre principaux courants de recherche : (1) les institutions, la gouvernance et le risque politique ; (2) les notations souveraines, le risque de crédit et les marchés financiers ; (3) les stratégies de localisation des entreprises multinationales ; et (4) les déterminants du risque pays dans les économies émergentes. Les thèmes les plus centraux concernent le risque politique, le risque économique, le risque financier, la qualité institutionnelle, les notations souveraines et les flux d’IDE. Cette étude met en évidence le caractère multidimensionnel du risque pays et confirme son rôle central dans les décisions d’investissement international. Elle fournit une cartographie actualisée du domaine et propose plusieurs pistes de recherche futures portant sur les interactions entre risque souverain, qualité institutionnelle et attractivité des investissements directs étrangers.
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